{"id":10655,"date":"2022-08-18T10:21:33","date_gmt":"2022-08-18T13:21:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/?p=10655"},"modified":"2022-08-18T10:21:33","modified_gmt":"2022-08-18T13:21:33","slug":"cambio-climatico-se-necesitan-mas-estudios-sobre-la-posibilidad-de-extincion-humana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/?p=10655","title":{"rendered":"Cambio clim\u00e1tico, se necesitan mas estudios sobre la posibilidad de extinci\u00f3n humana"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Los resultados catastr\u00f3ficos del cambio clim\u00e1tico, incluida la posibilidad de extinci\u00f3n humana, no est\u00e1n siendo tomados lo suficientemente en serio por los cient\u00edficos, seg\u00fan un nuevo estudio.\u00a0Los autores expresan que las consecuencias de un calentamiento m\u00e1s extremo, a\u00fan si no se toman medidas, est\u00e1n &#8220;peligrosamente infraexploradas&#8221;. Argumentan que el mundo necesita comenzar a prepararse para la posibilidad de lo que denominan el &#8220;final del juego clim\u00e1tico&#8221;. Quieren que los cient\u00edficos de la ONU investiguen el riesgo de un cambio catastr\u00f3fico.\u00a0Seg\u00fan este\u00a0nuevo an\u00e1lisis, los intentos m\u00e1s cercanos de comprender o abordar directamente c\u00f3mo el cambio clim\u00e1tico podr\u00eda conducir a una cat\u00e1strofe global, provienen de libros de divulgaci\u00f3n cient\u00edfica como\u00a0<i>La tierra inhabitable<\/i>\u00a0y no de la investigaci\u00f3n cient\u00edfica convencional.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\"><b class=\"ssrcss-hmf8ql-BoldText e5tfeyi3\">Catastrophic climate change outcomes, including human extinction, are not being taken seriously enough by scientists, a new study says.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The authors say that the consequences of more extreme warming &#8211; still on the cards if no action is taken &#8211; are &#8220;dangerously underexplored&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">They argue that the world needs to start preparing for the possibility of what they term the &#8220;climate endgame&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">They want UN scientists to investigate the risk of catastrophic change.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"unordered-list-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-1o5f7ft-BulletListContainer e5tfeyi0\">\n<ul role=\"list\">\n<li><a class=\"ssrcss-k17ofw-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/science-environment-62335975\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">40C heatwave has to be climate change &#8211; scientists<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"ssrcss-k17ofw-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-62323048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Weather forecasters abused over heatwave coverage<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"ssrcss-k17ofw-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-62303026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The PR and ad firms refusing fossil fuel clients<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"ssrcss-k17ofw-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/blogs-trending-61495035\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Meet the people fighting climate doomism<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">According to this\u00a0<a class=\"ssrcss-k17ofw-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2108146119\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new analysis<\/a>, the closest attempts to directly understand or address how climate change could lead to global catastrophe have come from popular science books such as\u00a0<i class=\"ssrcss-xbdn93-ItalicText e5tfeyi2\">The Uninhabitable Earth<\/i>\u00a0and not from mainstream science research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">In recent years climate scientists have more often studied the impacts of warming of around 1.5C or 2C above the temperatures seen in 1850, before the onset of global industrialisation.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">These studies show that keeping temperatures close to these levels this century will place heavy burdens on global economies, but they do not envisage the end of humanity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Researchers have focussed on these lower temperature scenarios for good reasons.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The Paris climate agreement saw almost every nation on Earth sign up to a deal that aims to keep the rise in global temperatures &#8220;well below&#8221; 2C this century, and make efforts to keep it under 1.5C.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10657\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10657\" style=\"width: 976px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10657\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/126151852_boat.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"976\" height=\"549\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/126151852_boat.jpg 976w, https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/126151852_boat-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/126151852_boat-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 976px) 100vw, 976px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10657\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">People flee from flood waters in Pakistan<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">So it&#8217;s natural that governments would want their scientists to show exactly what this type of change would mean.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">But this new paper says that not enough attention has been given to more extreme outcomes of climate change.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;I think it&#8217;s sane risk management to think about the plausible worst-case scenarios and we do it when it comes to every other situation, we should definitely do when it comes to the fate of the planet and species,&#8221; said lead author Dr Luke Kemp from the University of Cambridge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The researchers found that estimates of the impacts of a temperature rise of 3C are under-represented compared to their likelihood.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Using climate models, the report shows that in this type of scenario, by 2070 around 2 billion people living in some of the most politically fragile areas of the world would be enduring annual average temperatures of 29C.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;Average annual temperatures of 29C currently affect around 30 million people in the Sahara and Gulf Coast,&#8221; said co-author Chi Xu of Nanjing University.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;By 2070, these temperatures and the social and political consequences will directly affect two nuclear powers, and seven maximum containment laboratories housing the most dangerous pathogens. There is serious potential for disastrous knock-on effects,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10658\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10658\" style=\"width: 976px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10658\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/126158387_sand1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"976\" height=\"549\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/126158387_sand1.jpg 976w, https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/126158387_sand1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/126158387_sand1-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 976px) 100vw, 976px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10658\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The future impacts of extreme climate change have not been fully explored<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The report says that it is not just high temperatures that are the problem, it&#8217;s the compound and knock-on effects such as food or financial crises, conflicts or disease outbreaks that have the potential for disaster.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">There should also be more focus on identifying potential tipping points, where increasing warmth triggers another natural event that drives temperatures up even more &#8211; such as methane emissions from melting permafrost or forests that start emitting carbon rather than soaking it up.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">To properly assess all these risks, the authors are calling on the <a class=\"ssrcss-k17ofw-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/a>\u00a0to carry out a special report on catastrophic climate change.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The researchers said that seriously studying the consequences of worst-case scenarios was vital, even though it might scare people.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">They said that carrying out this research would allow scientists to consider emergency options such as climate engineering which might involve pumping coolants into the atmosphere. Researchers would be able to carry out a risk analysis for these drastic interventions compared to the worst effects of climate change. Focussing on the worst-case scenarios could also help inform the public &#8211; and might actually make the outcomes less likely.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;Understanding these plausible but grim scenarios is something that could galvanise both political and civil opinion,&#8221; said Dr Kemp.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;We saw this when it came to the identification of the idea of a nuclear winter that helped compel a lot of the public efforts as well as the disarmament movement throughout the 1970s and &#8217;80s.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;And I hope if we can find similar concrete and clear mechanisms when it comes to thinking about climate change, that it also has a similar effect.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The plea for serious study of more extreme scenarios will chime with many younger climate activists, who say they are often not addressed for fear of frightening people into inaction.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;It is vital that we have research into all areas of climate change, including the scary reality of catastrophic events,&#8221; said Laura Young, a 25-year-old climate activist. &#8220;This is because without the full truth, and all of the potential impacts, we won&#8217;t make the informed choices we need, and we won&#8217;t be driving climate action with enough pressure.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;For years climate change has been hidden, misinformed, and avoided and this has to stop now. Especially for the younger generations who are going to be left to deal with the consequences of years of pushing the Earth to its limits.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper ep2nwvo0\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-7uxr49-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The\u00a0<a class=\"ssrcss-k17ofw-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2108146119\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study\u00a0<\/a>has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Fuente: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/science-environment-62378157\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>https:\/\/www.bbc.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Los resultados catastr\u00f3ficos del cambio clim\u00e1tico, incluida la posibilidad de extinci\u00f3n humana, no est\u00e1n siendo tomados lo suficientemente en serio por los cient\u00edficos, seg\u00fan un&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10656,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[36,35],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10655"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10655"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10655\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10659,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10655\/revisions\/10659"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}