The U.S. Army’s M1 Abrams tanks will “not be effective” or able to “dominate” on the battlefields of the 2040s, especially in the context of a potential high-end conflict against China. This is the conclusion of an official advisory body that is also calling for an Abrams replacement effort that could include a next-generation M1 derivative<\/a>, as well as lighter ‘tanks’ armed\u00a0with larger caliber guns<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0hypersonic anti-tank missiles<\/a>, and\u00a0uncrewed ground vehicles<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The Army Science Board, a federally-sanctioned independent group of experts that advises the Secretary of the Army,\u00a0recently published an assessment<\/a>\u00a0about the future of the M1 tank. It also outlines the need for one or more types of “5th Generation Combat Vehicle,” or 5GCV, to meet operational demands in the 2040s. The origins of this study trace back to 2019 and the final report is dated August 2023.<\/p>\n The Army currently\u00a0has around 2,500 M1 Abrams tanks<\/a>\u00a0in service today, with thousands more in storage that could potentially be refurbished and returned to service, if necessary. The original M1 entered service in the 1980s and\u00a0significantly more capable variants<\/a>\u00a0have been introduced since then.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The Army Science Board study is blunt in its core conclusions about the future of the M1, stating early on:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n “Based on our findings, The M1 Abrams will not dominate the 2040 battlefield. All of the M1\u2019s advantages in mobility, firepower, and protection are at risk. The M1A2 SEP V3&4 upgrades will improve effectiveness but will not restore dominance. Near transparency in all domains will significantly increase the lethality our forces will experience. China and Russia have studied our forces and doctrine and are fielding countermeasures. We will continue to have to fight outnumbered, exacerbated by a low MBT operational readiness rate and an aging fleet.<\/em>”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The term “transparency” here refers to steadily more capable adversary intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. This, in turn, makes friendly actions more ‘transparent’ to opponents and increases the likelihood of them being detected, tracked, and targeted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The study reiterates its central points in its conclusion:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n “The M1 will not be effective on the 2040 battlefield. Its design for protection, lethality mobility and C2 are not sufficient to dominate the 2040 battlefield.”<\/em><\/p>\n The study bases these findings on a number of different factors. The authors explicitly point to intelligence about and lessons learned from Israel’s interventions\u00a0into southern Lebanon in 2006<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Gaza Strip in 2014<\/a>, the\u00a02020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict<\/a>, Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine starting in 2022, and developments within China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as having been key to informing their conclusions and recommendations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n “Conflict in South Lebanon in 2006 exposed shortcomings that drove changes in the Israeli Defense Force, particularly armored vehicle protection,” the study notes. “The Israelis restored survivability overmatch with active protection (APS) against shaped charge ATGMs [anti-tank guided missiles] to retain the ability to close with and destroy the enemy through maneuver and fire with protection. In Operation Protective Edge [in Gaza in 2014], the IDF did not lose a single tank to ATGM fire, including in very close terrain.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Israeli defense companies have been and continue to be\u00a0pioneers in active protection systems<\/a>\u00a0for armored vehicles. For years now, the Army has been in the process of integrating an Israeli-designed APS,\u00a0Rafael’s Trophy, onto its M1 tanks<\/a>. Trophy is a so-called hard-kill APS designed to defeat certain types of threats by physically intercepting them. Soft-kill APS\u00a0designs that work by<\/a>\u00a0either setting off incoming threats before they reach the vehicle or by preventing them from functioning properly at all also exist.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/army-abrams-tank.webp\")
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