Pese a que EEUU y sus aliados en Europa han incrementado notablemente las capacidades de producci\u00f3n de munici\u00f3n de artiller\u00eda, principalmente de 155mm, este esfuerzo a\u00fan resulta insuficiente para atender la enorme demanda de ese insumo vital, para el sostenimiento de las operaciones y recuperar el territorio invadido por Rusia. Con esta expansi\u00f3n de la capacidad, se ha prometido proveer a Ucrania 1.3 millones de proyectiles en el 2024, lo que implica disponer de unos 3.600 proyectiles diarios para disparar. Pero el Min Def ucraniano Reznikov, ha expresado que para sostener el \u00e9xito en el campo de batalla, sus fuerzas necesitan 11.800 disparos por d\u00eda. Una importante lecci\u00f3n para la Base Industrial de Defensa de los pa\u00edses.<\/p>\n
Though the United States and European allies have increased production of artillery shells and ammunition in recent months, they\u00a0still don\u2019t come close to meeting Ukraine\u2019s needs, according to a new\u00a0paper<\/a>\u00a0from the European Council on Foreign Relations.<\/p>\n Ukraine uses a lot of shells simply to hold the territory it has won back from Russia since the start of the 2022 expanded invasion of Ukraine\u2014as many as\u00a06,000 rounds daily.<\/a>\u00a0The U.S. and European allies\u00a0responded<\/a>\u00a0by greatly expanding shell manufacturing: they are expected to produce 1.3 million 155mm howitzer rounds this year\u00a0and more capacity is slated to come online in 2025, wrote the report’s authors, who are researchers from Germany.<\/p>\n But Ukraine\u2019s needs are far greater. Last March, Ukraine\u2019s Defense Secretary Oleksij Reznikov\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0Ukraine needed 356,400 shells a month \u201cfor the successful execution of battlefield tasks,\u201d which works out to 11,800 shots per day.<\/p>\n However, an Estonian\u00a0study<\/a>\u00a0from December notes that even those numbers are well below what Russia is capable of producing. \u201cIn 2024, production and recovery will increase further and would likely reach up to 4.5 million units. This volume significantly exceeds the amount of artillery ammunition available to Ukraine,\u201d the Estonians note.<\/p>\n The authors of the German study, which examined more than 200 papers and other resources, say that at current levels the math doesn\u2019t work out well for Ukraine.<\/p>\n The 1.3 million rounds of 155mm ammunition in 2024 \u201cwould correspond to around 3,600 shots per day. If you compare this value with the minimum that the Estonian Ministry of Defense states in its study with a daily requirement of 6,700 \u2014 or even our even lower value of a minimum defense of 5,000 per day \u2014 this is far too low,\u201d the paper states.<\/p>\n Still, Western officials contend that Russia\u2019s ammunition production capabilities are insufficient to achieve its objectives. So while they may have the shells, they\u00a0don\u2019t have the bullets.<\/a><\/p>\n Gustav Gressel, one of the paper\u2019s authors, told\u00a0Defense One<\/em>\u00a0that \u201cEU and U.S. production are set to increase throughout the year \u2026so we are below this average now, but by the end of the year the situation will improve for Ukraine. If, of course, the supplement will pass Congress and the U.S. is on board.\u201d<\/p>\n The U.S. is poised to produce 2.6 million 155mm rounds per year by 2025,\u00a0Defense One\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0Sam Skove recently\u00a0wrote<\/a>. But, Gressel said, those numbers are for next year.<\/p>\n \u201cAmmunition production is expanding both in the U.S. and the EU, both of which are scheduled to produce over 1 million rounds in 2025. However, production right now is lower. And in the U.S., the third tranche of subsidies to expand production is held up in Congress, and I do not know how far the delay may cause problems in the expansion of production.\u201d<\/p>\n