El 16Nov24 India realiz\u00f3 un ensayo de lanzamiento exitoso de su nuevo misil hipers\u00f3nico de largo alcance. El test es parte del Programa de Armas Hipers\u00f3nicas que desde hace a\u00f1os desarrolla la DRDO (Defence Research & Development Organization. Con un alcance de 1500km, puede llevar diversos tipos de cargas letales. De esta manera, India se posiciona como otro de los pa\u00edses con capacidad nuclear, que adem\u00e1s disponen de desarrollos propios de vectores militares que operan a velocidades superiores a MACH 5. El anuncio ha generado cierta preocupaci\u00f3n en el marco regional, ya que India mantiene conflictos pendientes con China y Pakist\u00e1n. Y si bien ambos tienen capacidad nuclear, Pakist\u00e1n no tiene desarrollos propios de armas hipers\u00f3nicas, lo cual lo deja en gran desventaja en caso de un conflicto armado.<\/p>\n
On November 16, India\u00a0announced<\/a>\u00a0the successful test launch of its first long-range hypersonic missile. The missile, developed by India\u2019s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO), was intended to carry \u201cvarious payloads for ranges greater than 1,500 kms for the Armed Forces.\u201d The test makes it one of the few nuclear-armed countries to develop these missiles, including the United States, China, Russia, and North Korea. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on\u00a0X<\/a>\u00a0(formerly Twitter) termed it a \u201chistoric moment\u201d for India, putting in a \u201cgroup of select nations having capabilities of such critical and advanced military technologies.\u201d The missile test occurred only days after China showcased a new hypersonic glide vehicle, the\u00a0GDF-600<\/a>, at its flagship Zhuhai air show.<\/p>\n India\u2019s test highlights the intensifying global race for hypersonic, including India\u2019s growing maturity in developing hypersonic systems, which it has invested in since the 2000s. It warrants further analysis of what this means for regional stability, particularly India\u2019s precarious relationships with China and Pakistan. Recent developments also indicate bilateral and regional approaches for the next U.S. administration to consider in an intensifying global race for hypersonic weapons.<\/p>\n Q1: Why is India testing its hypersonic missile now?<\/strong><\/p>\n A1:<\/strong>\u00a0The recent test represents a public culmination of India\u2019s multi-decade research into hypersonic systems. India\u2019s hypersonic ambitions began far before\u00a02007<\/a>\u00a0when it first took delivery of its BrahMos missile, a joint venture with Russia. In 2004, India\u00a0first publicized<\/a>\u00a0its indigenous development of the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle, demonstrating its scramjet engine in a 2020 flight test.<\/p>\n The timing of India\u2019s test comes alongside rapid developments in the global hypersonic arsenals. The test occurred days after China showcased the GDF-600. India finds itself in a global environment marked by rapid developments in the hypersonic space. Most recently, the United States tested its\u00a0hypersonic missile<\/a>\u00a0in the Pacific as part of its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon program. Over the past year, Russia loaded its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile\u00a0(ICBM) with\u00a0nuclear-capable Avangard HGV<\/a>\u00a0and was alleged to have used its\u00a0Zicron hypersonic missile<\/a>\u00a0in its ongoing war in Ukraine. North Korean state media\u00a0reported<\/a>\u00a0a test of the Hwasong 16B hypersonic missile, described by President Kim Jong Un as a \u201ckey piece of the nuclear deterrent.\u201d<\/p>\n India\u2019s attention is on China, a neighbor with whom it shares a long history of border crisis and security concerns. Touted as the leader in hypersonic technology, U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) officials state that China surpasses Russia and the United States in the\u00a0development and advancement<\/a>\u00a0of conventional and nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons. A recent\u00a0intelligence leak<\/a>\u00a0revealed that the People\u2019s Liberation Army 2023 successfully tested its DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle in 2023, allowing it to easily penetrate missile defense systems. As per the\u00a02023 China Military Power Report<\/a>, the DF-17 HGV-armed medium-range ballistic missile \u201cwill transform the PLA\u2019s missile force.\u201d While the DF-17 is meant for conventional missions, it can\u00a0equip<\/a>\u00a0nuclear warheads.<\/p>\n Q2: How does this development shape India’s strategic capabilities amid competition with China?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n A2:<\/strong>\u00a0Former commander of the U.S. Strategic Command General John Hyten has\u00a0emphasized<\/a>\u00a0that hypersonic technology gives a country \u201cresponse, long-range, strike options against distant, defended and\/or time critical threats when other forces are unavailable.\u201d Hypersonic weapons offer India a capability\u00a0combining<\/a>\u00a0extreme speed, maneuverability, and low-altitude flight, making them harder to\u00a0track and detect<\/a>. India\u2019s test launch indicates its move towards diversifying its strategic capabilities and strengthening its deterrent by enhancing\u00a0traditional warfighting advantages<\/a>.DRDO states that the missile carries \u201cvarious payloads<\/a>,\u201d prompting several questions on the specifications, such as its speed and the hypersonic delivery systems within the missile.<\/p>\n Q3: What is the response from China and Pakistan on the missile test?<\/strong><\/p>\n A3:<\/strong>\u00a0China and Pakistan are yet to provide an official response to India\u2019s hypersonic missile test. China is unlikely to respond, an approach that it has\u00a0maintained<\/a>\u00a0in the past. However, China has responded to military developments, including the unprecedented deployment of a Given India\u2019s expanding capabilities, this may tempt Pakistan to respond by ramping up its hypersonic developments and potential reliance on China for hypersonic technology in the coming days. While Pakistan does not have an indigenous hypersonic program, the Pakistan Air Force recently claimed the development of a hypersonic-capable missile as part of a larger modernization effort to \u201ccounter evolving threats<\/a>.\u201d A\u00a0video<\/a>\u00a0released by the Pakistan Air Force featured a CM-400AKG anti-ship missile, a China-manufactured missile that allegedly travels at hypersonic speeds.<\/p>\n Q4: What are the broader implications of India’s test on the ongoing missile race in South Asia?<\/strong><\/p>\n A4:<\/strong>\u00a0The recent test adds new urgency to India, China, and Pakistan\u2019s missile race. India\u2019s clear ambition to strengthen its hypersonic program and Pakistan\u2019s desire to pursue this capability, coupled with China\u2019s influence on the region, raise concerns about potential escalation risks. Hypersonic weapons can maneuver to different targets and present little warning time for defenders, complicating a tense nuclear balance. Moreover, the challenge of facing two nuclear peers\u2014considered an emergent problem among U.S. strategists\u2014represents India\u2019s current status quo. Hypersonic proliferation in the region will demand a deeper reckoning.<\/p>\n India\u2019s test launch also comes amid a complicated relationship with China. The test not only coincides with China\u2019s showcasing of new hypersonic missiles but comes weeks after India and China reached a\u00a0new military patrol<\/a>\u00a0pact along the Line of Actual Control, four years after its deadly border clash began in 2020. The pact divides Indian experts on whether this is a strategic shift or more of a tactical move, and the implications of this new pact are yet to be seen, especially between two countries with a history of deep mistrust and border contentions. Tracking advancements in technological processes is critical moving forward for the India-China relationship.<\/p>\n Q5: How can the next U.S. administration shape India-China dynamics in the ongoing hypersonic weapons race?<\/strong><\/p>\n A5:<\/strong>\u00a0India\u2019s missile test highlights how quickly it can advance its capability. This adds a sense of urgency for the United States, which is lagging on its hypersonic developments. The incoming U.S. administration will need to consider the emerging challenges from the hypersonic developments from China and Russia as well as the rising capabilities of North Korea. Former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Admiral John Aquilino\u00a0stated<\/a>\u00a0that the DOD lags behind China on hypersonic weapons and systems required to defend them. Former U.S. DOD officials have also\u00a0highlighted<\/a>\u00a0that the United States has ways to go in terms of capability and capacity.<\/p>\n The growing competition also offers a preview of what the United States may face in its own two-peer nuclear challenge. As the new administration considers its approach to regional stability, it will be critical to deepen engagements with India, deriving learnings from its two-peer challenges. Through two prior administrations, India and the United States have strengthened defense and military ties, forming the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (known as the Quad) to counter regional competitors.<\/p>\n There are two approaches that the United States can take. On a bilateral level, the Trump administration should use the next 2+2 Intersessional and Ministerial Dialogues to discuss developments in India\u2019s hypersonic program, potential challenges faced by China, and how to strengthen information sharing between the two countries. These dialogues allow the United States and India to discuss shared priorities across a range of issues, including defense cooperation.<\/p>\n On a broader Indo-Pacific level, the United States should leverage its partnership with India through the Quad, which includes Australia and Japan, to strengthen information sharing with its Indo-Pacific allies. Most recently, the U.S. DOD announced a new\u00a0agreement<\/a>\u00a0as part of AUKUS to enhance testing of hypersonic vehicles and implementation of related technologies, seen as an effort to counter China\u2019s dominance. The United States also recently formalized an\u00a0agreement<\/a>\u00a0with Japan on hypersonic missile defense. The next Quad meeting in India serves as a good platform for the incoming administration to foster dialogue with Quad members on China\u2019s growing dominance in the hypersonic race and its impact on Indo-Pacific security going forward.<\/p>\n
\nmultiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV)\u2013capable ICBM. The most recent response was to the Agni-V MIRV capable ICBM, showcasing its capability of reaching targets in China. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian\u00a0cited<\/a>\u00a0UN resolution 1172, which condemns India and Pakistan\u2019s respective nuclear tests in 1998, stating that \u201cmaintaining peace, security and stability in South Asia meets the common interests of all.\u201d<\/p>\n