{"id":16733,"date":"2025-03-21T20:02:01","date_gmt":"2025-03-21T23:02:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/?p=16733"},"modified":"2025-03-21T20:02:01","modified_gmt":"2025-03-21T23:02:01","slug":"la-ley-de-ferguson-servicio-de-la-deuda-gasto-militar-y-los-limites-fiscales-del-poder","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/?p=16733","title":{"rendered":"La Ley de Ferguson, servicio de la deuda, gasto militar y los l\u00edmites fiscales del poder"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Este art\u00edculo presenta la Ley de Ferguson, que afirma que una gran potencia corre el riesgo de perder su estatus, si gasta m\u00e1s en el servicio de la deuda que en defensa. El l\u00edmite de Ferguson marca el punto de inflexi\u00f3n, donde los pagos de intereses superan los gastos de defensa, desviando recursos de la seguridad nacional y aumentando la vulnerabilidad a las amenazas militares. Ejemplos hist\u00f3ricos, como el declive del Imperio espa\u00f1ol en el siglo XVII o del Imperio brit\u00e1nico tras la IIda GM, demuestran que superar este l\u00edmite suele indicar una disminuci\u00f3n de la influencia geopol\u00edtica de una gran potencia. Si bien la recuperaci\u00f3n es poco com\u00fan, no es imposible. El estudio cobra especial relevancia hoy en d\u00eda, ya que Estados Unidos super\u00f3 el l\u00edmite de Ferguson en 2024, por primera vez en casi un siglo.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>ABSTRACT:\u00a0<\/strong>Are there financial determinants of great-power decline and fall? This paper proposes \u201cFerguson\u2019s Law,\u201d which states that any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power. The paper identifies the \u201cFerguson limit,\u201d or the point at which interest payments exceed defense spending, as the tipping point after which the centripetal forces of the aggregate debt burden tend to pull apart the geopolitical grip of a great power. This is because the debt burden draws scarce resources towards itself, reducing the amount available for national security, and leaving the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge. Using historical case studies that are analogous to the situation of the modern United States as the dominant global power, the paper shows that it is very rare but not unprecedented for a great power to return to the right side of the Ferguson limit. The paper is timely, as the United States began violating Ferguson\u2019s Law for the first time in nearly a century in 2024.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/HAHWGWorkingPaper-212502-Fergusons-Law-Final.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5168\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/icono-PDF-1-243x300.png\" alt=\"Descargar archivo pdf\" width=\"75\" height=\"93\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/icono-PDF-1-243x300.png 243w, https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/icono-PDF-1.png 310w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 75px) 100vw, 75px\" \/><\/a><strong>Fuente:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hoover.org\/research\/fergusons-law-debt-service-military-spending-and-fiscal-limits-power\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>https:\/\/www.hoover.org<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Este art\u00edculo presenta la Ley de Ferguson, que afirma que una gran potencia corre el riesgo de perder su estatus, si gasta m\u00e1s en el&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16734,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[37,28],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16733"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16736,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733\/revisions\/16736"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fie.undef.edu.ar\/ceptm\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}