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China has made no secret of its\u00a0<\/strong>ambitions to lead the world in artificial intelligence, nor of the military and geopolitical advantage it hopes to gain from this rapidly advancing technology. A closer look at Beijing\u2019s whole-of-nation\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0strategy shows the challenge to the United States \u2014 and suggests what America must do lest it be eclipsed in this latest round of great-power\u00a0competition.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s vision came into focus over the summer with the release of the New Generation\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0Development Plan, which\u00a0articulates<\/a>\u00a0an ambitious agenda to \u201clead the world\u201d in the field. Chinese leaders, no longer content to copy Western technologies, are aiming to become the world\u2019s \u201cpremier\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0innovation center,\u201d advancing an \u201cinnovation-driven\u201d\u00a0strategy<\/a>\u00a0for civilian and military\u00a0development.<\/p>\n The implementation of this agenda will be a whole-of-government endeavor involving 15 central agencies and a growing number of local governments. Their efforts will foster the growth of a robust\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0industry and ecosystem and pour billions into longer-term research and development of next-generation technologies. The plan will tap the dynamism of national tech champions, such as Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and iFlytek, that have been leading China\u2019s\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0revolution.<\/p>\n Under the national strategy of \u201cmilitary-civil fusion,\u201d their breakthroughs can also be put to military\u00a0use.<\/p>\n t is telling that the agencies responsible for the plan\u00a0include<\/a>\u00a0the Central Military-Civil Fusion Development Commission and both the Equipment Development Department and Science and Technology Commission of the Central Military Commission, or\u00a0CMC<\/span>. The strategic advisory committee responsible for supporting the new plan\u2019s implementation also includes several\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u00a0civilians (in uniform). And China\u2019s\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0agenda has the very highest support, in the country\u2019s leader \u2014\u00a0and\u00a0CMC<\/span>\u00a0Chairman \u2014 Xi Jinping, who has urged his country to advance military innovation and highlighted the strategic significance of\u00a0AI<\/span>.<\/p>\n PLA<\/span>\u00a0thinkers expect\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0to reshape the character of war itself, from today\u2019s \u201cinformatized\u201d (\u4fe1\u606f\u5316) ways of warfare into \u201cintelligentized\u201d (\u667a\u80fd\u5316) warfare, in which\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0is critical. According to Lt. Gen. Liu Guozhi, who leads the\u00a0CMC<\/span>\u00a0Science and Technology Commission,\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0could accelerate military transformation, reshaping military units\u2019 programming, operational styles, equipment systems, and models of combat power generation, ultimately leading to a profound military revolution. He warns, \u201cfacing disruptive technology, [we] must\u2026seize the opportunity to change paradigms. If you don\u2019t disrupt, you\u2019ll be disrupted!\u201d So the\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u00a0is pursuing intelligent and autonomous unmanned systems;\u00a0AI<\/span>-enabled data fusion, information processing, and intelligence analysis; war-gaming, simulation, and training; defense, offense, and command in information warfare; and intelligent support to command decision-making, among other applications. In particular, the\u00a0CMC<\/span>\u00a0Joint Staff Department has called for the\u00a0PLA<\/span>to leverage the \u201ctremendous potential\u201d of\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0in planning, decision support, and operational command. This fall, in his report at the 19th<\/sup>\u00a0Party Congress, Xi Jinping himself called for the acceleration of this agenda of military\u00a0\u201cintelligentization.\u201d<\/p>\n Given this high-level focus on defense and military innovation, the\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u00a0is funding and the Chinese defense industry is pursuing a range of research and development, while Chinese defense academics start to explore and experiment with new potential concepts, including through war-gaming. As\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0and robotics start to become more pervasive on the future battlefield, certain\u00a0PLA<\/span>thinkers even anticipate the approach of a battlefield \u201csingularity.\u201d At such a point, human cognition might no longer be able to keep pace with the speed of decision and tempo of combat. That could require that humans no longer remain directly \u201cin the loop\u201d but instead shift to command and supervisory roles. Certainly, current limitations in the capabilities of\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0systems may preclude higher degrees of autonomy and automation for the time being, but there will be missions and contexts in which they are desirable or imperative. This is already is the case in\u00a0air and missile defense<\/a>\u00a0and could soon be for cyber\u00a0operations.<\/p>\n Although there have been predictions and expectations that authoritarian regimes may opt for fully automated approaches, while neglecting the human factor,\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u00a0thinkers have, in fact, highlighted the importance of human-machine collaboration and manned-unmanned teaming. Lt. Gen. Liu has even anticipated that human-machine hybrid intelligence will be the highest form of future intelligence. The\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u00a0could also be unwilling to remove humans from key aspects of command decision-making\u00a0because of\u00a0<\/em>the preference for centralized authority and concerns over controllability. Concurrently, the\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u00a0could face considerable human challenges in its introduction of such new, highly complex\u00a0systems.<\/p>\n At this point, the future trajectory of U.S.-China strategic competition in\u00a0AI<\/span>remains uncertain. However, it is clear that the\u00a0U.S.<\/span>\u00a0military must recognize the\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u2019s emergence as a true peer competitor and reevaluate the nature of U.S.-China military technological competition accordingly. As the\u00a0PLA<\/span>attempts to overtake, rather than just catch up with or match,\u00a0U.S.<\/span>\u00a0progress in these emerging capabilities, it will be vital to understand and take into account the\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u2019s evolving approach and advances. For instance, since the locus of innovation has shifted to the private sector in these emerging technologies, China\u2019s implementation of military-civil fusion in\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0could provide the\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u00a0a structural advantage in rapidly adapting the latest advances for military\u00a0purposes.<\/p>\n U.S.<\/span>\u00a0competitive strategy and defense innovation initiatives should be informed by a more nuanced understanding of the\u00a0PLA<\/span>\u2019s strategic thinking on and development of military applications of\u00a0AI<\/span>. The\u00a0U.S.<\/span>\u00a0military should also continue to explore the risks and advantages of developing \u201ccounter-AI<\/span>\u201d capabilities. While seeking to develop appropriate concepts of operations for the\u00a0AI<\/span>revolution, the\u00a0U.S.<\/span>\u00a0military must also focus on leveraging its enduring advantage in the human element of military power. This remains vital and faces even more complex challenges in an age of automation and autonomous\u00a0systems.<\/p>\n The future trajectory of\u00a0U.S.<\/span>\u00a0defense and military innovation will depend upon a closer partnership with the private sector and the pursuit of long-term strategies to increase national competitiveness in\u00a0AI<\/span>, especially boosting spending on research and education. U.S.-China military and strategic competition could turn on their relative success in using this disruptive technology to increase national power and military\u00a0capabilities.<\/p>\n