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When Vladimir Putin said last fall that\u00a0<\/strong>artificial intelligence is \u201chumanity\u2019s future\u201d and that the country that masters it will \u201cget to rule the world,\u201d some observers guessed that the Russian president was hinting at unrevealed progress and breakthroughs in the field. But a glance at publicly available statistics indicates otherwise. Russia\u2019s annual domestic investment in\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0is probably around 700 million rubles ($12.5 million) \u2013 a paltry sum next to the billions being\u00a0spent by American and Chinese companies. Even if private-sector investment rises as expected to\u00a028 billion rubles ($500 million) by 2020, that will still be just a fraction of the global\u00a0total.<\/p>\nInstead, Putin\u2019s statement should be interpreted as a recognition of Russia\u2019s current place in this unfolding technology race, and of the need by the nation\u2019s government, private sector, and the military to marshal the needed resources to persevere in this domain. In March, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu put a finer point on it, calling for civilian and military designers to\u00a0join forces to develop artificial intelligence\u00a0technologies to \u201ccounter possible threats in the field of technological and economic security of\u00a0Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n
This is already beginning to happen. The Russian government is increasingly developing and funding various\u00a0AI<\/span>-related projects, many under the auspices of the Ministry of Defense and its affiliated institutions and research centers. A three-year-old\u00a0AI<\/span>and semantic data analysis research project\u00a0led by the military-related United Instrument-Making Corporation \u2014 and involving the Russian Academy of Sciences, various universities, and more than 30 private companies \u2014 is shaping up to be\u00a0one of Russia\u2019s biggest public-private approaches. Earlier this year, the\u00a0MOD<\/span>\u00a0announced a competition\u00a0among \u201cdesigners of robotics technologies\u201d to develop artificial intelligence. The Ministry\u2019s Main Directorate for Scientific Research and Technological Support of Advanced Technologies will\u00a0select the winning designs, with special attention paid to big-data technology, machine vision, and machine\u00a0learning.<\/p>\n There are also efforts to shape and guide these burgeoning efforts. In March, Russia\u2019s six-year-old\u00a0Foundation for Advanced Studies\u00a0\u2014 created as a parallel to the Pentagon\u2019s Defense Advanced Research Project Agency \u2014 announced\u00a0proposals for the\u00a0MOD<\/span>\u00a0to\u00a0standardize artificial intelligence developmentalong four lines of effort: image recognition, speech recognition, control of autonomous military systems, and information support for weapons\u2019 life-cycle. This month brought\u00a0the latest in a series of government-sponsored forums\u00a0intended to discuss domestic\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0developments, review international achievements in the field \u2014 and spur the development of proposals aimed at the \u201ctargeted orientation of the Russian scientific community and the Russian state on the issues and tasks of creating artificial intelligence.\u201d There is also a new\u00a0Russian\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0Association, which brings together academic and private-sector institutions to plan various technological, socio-cultural, and even philosophical\u00a0developments.<\/p>\n All this government activity has apparently infused many Russian developers with new confidence. Indeed, some are claiming that\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0may arrive in just a few years\u2019 time. It is even engendering hope that the country might at long last develop an infrastructure for turning theoretical knowledge, long the strength of its scientific community, into practical solutions. In March, Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Nikolai Pankov said that that hundreds of science and technology departments in the nation\u2019s military universities are currently\u00a0engaged in R&D\u00a0related to \u201cartificial intelligence, robotics, military cybernetics and other promising areas.\u201d According to Pankov, the results of this scientific activity \u201care widely used\u00a0in the development of new military\u00a0systems.\u201d<\/p>\n But can the Russian government involvement actually foster high-tech development? The answer isn\u2019t clear. Its own \u201cSilicon Valley\u201d-like effort at Skolkovo has\u00a0fizzled out\u00a0and is today a fraction of the activity and output promised initially,\u00a0despite massive support at the presidential level and backing from various government\u00a0institutions.<\/p>\n Practical Military\u00a0Uses<\/strong><\/p>\n Nevertheless, military experts say\u00a0artificial intelligence could change\u00a0the strategies, planning and organization of Russia\u2019s military. They expect\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0to help automate the analysis of satellite imagery and radar data, by quickly identifying targets and picking out unusual behavior by a enemy ground or airborne forces.\u00a0AI<\/span>would also allow the Russian military to obtain a\u00a0so-called \u201clibrary of goals,\u201d\u00a0which will help weapons with recognition and\u00a0guidance.<\/p>\n But the biggest and fastest breakthroughs based on machine learning can be expected in the realm of electronic warfare. Last year saw the deployment of Russian\u00a0EW<\/span>\u00a0units to Syria, eastern Ukraine, and Crimea, where\u00a0they are amassing data\u00a0about the performance and electronic signals and signatures of American and other western assets in the region: aircraft and airborne sensors, naval vessels, missiles, etc. This data will be fed to machine-learning systems and used to improve Russian\u00a0EW<\/span>.<\/p>\n The Russian military openly admits that\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0is\u00a0already used by certain weapons, yet questions about whether and how to use it are still being debated by policymakers, experts, and designers. Recent discussion has focused on the potential fallibility and\u00a0unpredictability\u00a0of\u00a0AI<\/span>-driven combat machines and the possibility that they might be disabled or even turned against Russian forces by adversary hackers. For now, the official Russian position\u00a0highlights the \u201cinadmissibility of loss of meaningful human control,\u201d placing it in line with the rest of the international community\u2019s emerging viewpoint, and the debate seems to be moving toward a\u00a0requirement to maintain a human in the loopon all lethal\u00a0decisions.<\/p>\n What kind of military uses for\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0is the Russian establishment openly discussing? The\u00a0future MiG-41 combat aircraft\u00a0\u201cwill be provided with elements of artificial intelligence that will help the pilot to control the aircraft at speeds four to six times higher than the speed of sound,\u201d\u00a0RT<\/span>\u00a0reports. The Su-35 jet\u00a0reportedlyalready has\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0that can match available weapons to potential targets. And starting this year, the Russian military will\u00a0acquire the \u201cBylina\u201d electronic warfare system, touted as capable of \u201cindependent analysis\u201d and \u201cchoosing ways to suppress enemy electronic signals.\u201d Russian military experts have said the Bylina is \u201cclose to being an actual artificial intelligence\u00a0system.\u201d<\/p>\n Russian designers and military officials are also\u00a0working on aerial drones\u00a0that adjust to emerging battlefield conditions and coordinate among themselves when deployed in swarms, though progress appears to trail similar efforts in the United States and\u00a0China.<\/p>\n Recently, the Russian \u201cGaltel\u201d unmanned underwater vehicle was\u00a0successfully used to hunt for\u00a0unexploded ordnance in the port area of Tartus, Syria. It was reportedly equipped with \u201cartificial intelligence,\u201d allowing the\u00a0UUV<\/span>\u00a0to problem-solve on the\u00a0go.<\/p>\n Certain\u00a0AI<\/span>-driven successes are also visible in Russia\u2019s burgeoning unmanned ground military vehicle sector. For example, the Foundation for Advanced Studies is using the \u201cNerekhta\u201d unmanned ground vehicle as an\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0test bed, learning to cooperate with other ground and aerial unmanned\u00a0systems.<\/p>\n The Tactical Missiles Corporation has said Russia will\u00a0roll out artificial intelligence-powered missiles\u00a0in a few years. A former Russian Air Force chief, Gen. Viktor Bondarev, has said that Russian combat aircraft would get\u00a0AI<\/span>-infused cruise missiles that will analyze the air and radar situation and improve its altitude, speed, and direction. The famed arms manufacturer Kalashnikov recently announced that it will launch a range of \u201cautonomous combat drones\u201d which will use artificial intelligence to identify targets and make decisions \u201con their\u00a0own.\u201d<\/p>\n Based on the available evidence, Western militaries need not be immediately alarmed about the arrival of\u00a0AI<\/span>-infused Russian weapons with next-generation capabilities \u2014 except, perhaps, in the field of\u00a0EW<\/span>. Western and Chinese efforts are currently well ahead of Russian initiatives, in terms of funding, infrastructure, and practical results. But the Russian government is clearly aiming to marshal its existing academic and industrial resources for\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0breakthroughs \u2014 and just might achieve\u00a0them.<\/p>\n