China is set to double its nuclear stockpile over the next decade, operates the world\u2019s largest Navy, is surging its space capabilities, and embedding artificial intelligence across everything that it does, according to the Pentagon\u2019s latest annual assessment on Beijing\u2019s military power.<\/p>\n
In several key aspects, the Chinese and U.S. militaries are pursuing similar trends, such as expanding naval power, the movement toward a more integrated joint force, and an embrace of emerging information technologies like AI.<\/p>\n
The Defense Department\u2019s 2020 China Military Power<\/a> report, released Tuesday, assesses that China will \u201cat least double\u201d its nuclear stockpile to about 400 warheads and is strengthening its nuclear deterrence. \u201cNew developments in 2019 further suggest that China intends to increase the peacetime readiness of its nuclear forces by moving to a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture with an expanded silo-based force.\u201d China is also pursuing its own version of a nuclear triad, with air-launched ballistic missiles, in addition to ICBMs. Pentagon officials assess China will have 200 intercontinental missiles in the next five years.<\/p>\n \u201cCombined with a near-complete lack of transparency regarding their strategic intent and the perceived need for a much larger, more diverse nuclear force, these developments pose a significant concern for the United States,\u201d said Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Chad Sbragia, briefing reporters on the report at the Pentagon on Tuesday.<\/p>\n The United States had been looking to include China in discussions about an enhanced New START treaty, which governs the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons and launch platforms that the United States and Russia can keep in their inventories. China has so far said that it isn\u2019t interested<\/a> in participating in a trilateral discussion on nuclear arms control.<\/p>\n \u201cThe United States is willing to make progress with Russia while waiting on China to recognize its interests in behaving like a great power and a responsible nuclear weapons state by pursuing negotiations in good faith,\u201d Sbragia said.<\/p>\n China has also built up its Navy to become the world\u2019s largest with 350 ships and submarines (and 130 surface combatants.) That\u2019s a change from last year\u2019s report<\/a>, which describes China as having the largest \u201cregional\u201d Navy.\u00a0 \u201cIn comparison, the U.S. Navy\u2019s battle force is approximately 293 ships as of early 2020,\u201d notes this year\u2019s report.<\/p>\n Speaking to the conservative American Enterprise Institute later Tuesday, Sbragia added \u201cthe caution is always [that] numbers are one element, not the entirety\u2026 There’s tonnage, capacity, sophistication.\u201d For instance, China commissioned its first aircraft carrier last year, with its second scheduled for 2023, compared to the fleet of 11<\/a> U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.<\/p>\n For years, Pentagon leaders have boasted that despite China\u2019s buildup of new technologies and weapons, the People\u2019s Liberation Army, or PLA, lacked the American training and fighting experience in joint combat scenarios that synchronize land, air, and sea power, giving the United States tremendous advantage in any potential head-to-head conflict. According to this year\u2019s report, the PLA is working hard to change that.<\/p>\n \u201cMore striking than the PLA\u2019s staggering amounts of new military hardware are the recent sweeping efforts taken by [Chinese Communist Party, or CCP] leaders that include completely restructuring the PLA into a force better suited for joint operations, improving the PLA\u2019s overall combat readiness, encouraging the PLA to embrace new operational concepts, and expanding the [People\u2019s Republic of China, or PRC\u2019s] overseas military footprint.\u201d<\/p>\n Additionally, China\u2019s space activities are maturing \u201crapidly,\u201d the report says, noting that China wants to have its own permanent space station by 2022. \u201cBeijing has devoted significant economic and political resources to growing all aspects of its space program, from military space applications to civil applications such as profit-generating launches, scientific endeavors, and space exploration.\u201d<\/p>\n Beijing is also putting emerging technology, particularly artificial intelligence, at the center of its efforts to modernize its military. \u201cThe PRC is pursuing a whole-of-society effort to become a global leader in AI, which includes designating select private AI companies in China as \u2018AI champions\u2019 to emphasize R&D in specific dual-use technologies,\u201d the report states. It\u2019s part of China\u2019s five-year plan<\/a> to become the world\u2019s dominant player in the technology by 2030.<\/p>\n