Bombarderos Tu-22M de Rusia han comenzado a sobrevolar el territorio de Ucrania, con la misi\u00f3n de realizar el bombardeo masivo sobre tropas ucranianas en la ciudad de Mariupol. Dos aspectos han llamado la\u00a0atenci\u00f3n a los expertos militares: La presencia de Bombarderos\u00a0Estrat\u00e9gicos Tu-22 sobrevolando territorio de Ucrania y exponi\u00e9ndose a ser batidos por las a\u00fan muy activas capacidades de Defensa A\u00e9rea Ucraniana, cosa que no hab\u00eda ocurrido hasta ahora. El segundo aspecto, relacionado \u00edntimamente con el primero, es que el empleo del sistema \u201cTu-22 – Bombas FAB (no guiadas)\u201d conlleva severos da\u00f1os colaterales sobre la poblaci\u00f3n e infraestructura civiles, lo que podr\u00eda estar indicando que Rusia ha comenzado a agotar sus stocks de los sofisticados y muy precisos misiles de Crucero y Bal\u00edsticos de corto alcance (SRBM), empleados asiduamente desde los inicios de la invasi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n
Russian air force Tu-22M bombers flew into Ukrainian air space Thursday and dropped unguided bombs on Ukrainian troops in the besieged city of Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov coast.<\/p>\n
It was the first time the 120-ton, swing-wing, supersonic bombers directly have raided Ukraine since Russia widened its war on the country starting the night of Feb. 23. Before the Mariupol mission, the Tu-22Ms attacked Ukraine without leaving Russian air space\u2014by firing long-range cruise missiles.<\/p>\n
The bombing run, which was recorded by a Russian drone and\u00a0later confirmed by Ukrainian officials<\/a>, could indicate that the Kremlin is running low on cruise missiles.<\/p>\n It requires a certain amount of recklessness, or desperation, to fly the big bombers within range of enemy air-defenses. Georgian troops famously shot down a Tu-22M, killing its four crew members, during the Russian invasion of the Republic of Georgia in 2008.<\/p>\n The drone footage of the Tu-22M raid clearly depicts a stick of gravity bombs exploding on the campus of the Azovstal steel plant on the eastern outskirts of Mariupol.<\/p>\n Around 160,000 civilians are trapped in the ruins of Mariupol. Thousands more have died. \u201cThe humanitarian situation in the city is worsening,\u201d the U.K. Defense Ministry\u00a0warned<\/a>. \u201cMost of the 160,000 remaining residents have no light, communication, medicine, heat or water.\u201d<\/p>\n Azovstal is an important strong-point in the city\u2019s defense. Troops from the far-right Azov Battalion, the Ukrainian marine corps and the local territorial defense force have holed up in and around Azovstal\u2019s industrial maze. A number of marines a few days ago broke out of an isolated defensive pocket in Mariupol in order to link up with the Azov Battalion.<\/p>\n Surrounded and all but cut off from the rest of the Ukrainian military except for occasional, high-risk helicopter supply runs, the Azovstal defenders for more than six weeks\u00a0have managed to hold off<\/a>\u00a0a much larger force of Russian, Chechen and separatist troops.<\/p>\n \u201cUkraine\u2019s continued defense of Mariupol is currently tying down significant numbers of Russian troops and equipment,\u201d the U.K. Defense Ministry\u00a0stated<\/a>.<\/p>\n As battered Russian formations retreated from northern Ukraine earlier this month, the Kremlin has redoubled its efforts in the east and south, including around Mariupol. \u201cRussian air activity is expected to increase in the south and east of Ukraine in support of this activity,\u201d the ministry\u00a0explained<\/a>.<\/p>\n It makes military sense for Russia to bombard Azovstal. But it\u2019s somewhat surprising that the Kremlin was willing to fly Tu-22Ms directly over the plant. It\u2019s not for no reason that every previous Russian bomber sortie carefully avoided going anywhere near Ukraine.<\/p>\n Fifty days into the wider war, Kyiv\u2019s air-defense system\u00a0still mostly is intact<\/a>. Ukrainian air-defenders\u00a0so far have shot down<\/a>\u00a0at least 71 Russian aircraft that analysts can confirm. They\u2019d surely love to add one of Russia\u2019s 60 or so Tu-22Ms to their tally of kills.<\/p>\n It\u2019s possible the Russians are running out of cruise missiles and, in order to keep up the pressure on Mariupol\u2019s defenders, have no choice but to drop bombs.<\/p>\n A Pentagon official on March 25 told reporters the Kremlin\u2019s stockpile of long-range precision munitions was down by half. \u201cAir-launched cruise missiles in particular are the thing that they’re the lowest on,\u201d the unnamed official\u00a0said<\/a>. \u201cAnd then we think that’s one of the reasons why we’re seeing them use more and more dumb bombs, if you will.\u201d<\/p>\n The Tu-22Ms in the recent raid got lucky and apparently returned to their base undamaged. It\u2019s unclear what carnage they left behind. \u201cRussia\u2019s continued reliance on unguided bombs decreases their ability to discriminate when targeting and conducting strikes while greatly increasing the risk of further civilian casualties,\u201d the U.K. Defense Ministry\u00a0stated<\/a>.<\/p>\n If the Russians really are running low on cruise missiles, expect more bombers to fly directly over the war zone and drop more dumb bombs. Also expect the Ukrainians to take aim at the giant warplanes.<\/p>\n