El ciclo de vida de un desastre puede ser dividido en tres fases: una fase de preparación pre-desastre, una fase de respuesta, y finalmente, la fase de recuperación post-desastre. Los modelos de preparación tienen en cuenta las decisiones de mitigación para reducir el tiempo de respuesta ante un evento de esta naturaleza, tales como la ubicación de depósitos y stocks estratégicos. Por otro lado, los modelos de respuesta se refieren a decisiones sobre el tamaño de la flota de asistencia y los planes de rutas para la aproximación final de los vehículos encargados del transporte de víctimas y la distribución de socorro.
Climate change has aggravated the frequency and impacts of disasters globally. UNEP Climate Action acknowledges the need to cooperate and enhance the understanding, action, and support in different areas such as early warning systems, emergency preparedness, and risk insurance, thereby emphasizing the importance of disaster operations management (DOM). A disaster life cycle has three planning phases: predisaster preparedness phase and postdisaster response and recovery phases. A recent survey on response and recovery models and enabling Information technology tools is presented by Ozdamar and Ertem1.
In the predisaster phase, strategic decisions are made regarding relief material and equipment prepositioning, distribution of bulk relief to potential local shelters, and risk-prevention actions for infrastructure. Prestocking of relief materials reduces postdisaster response time, while prepositioning of shelters leads to efficient evacuation of the population. Uncertainty is inherent in predisaster models because the timing, location, and the impact of a disaster cannot be known a priori. Preparedness decision models incorporate probabilistic impact levels and disaster locations and optimize their decisions accordingly.
In the postdisaster response phase, tactical and operational decisions are made on the vehicle fleet size, fleet composition, and individual vehicle routes resulting in detailed transportation plans regarding relief distribution and casualty transportation. These plans should be activated within the first 72 h after the event. Uncertain parameters in these models are relief demands, supply availability, vehicle availability, number of casualties and their categories, road safety, and so on. The problem here is that precise information cannot be collected immediately after the disaster, and decision makers have to work with both confirmed data and approximations.
Fuente: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com
