Las rápidas mejoras en las tecnologías de los vehículos eléctricos han tomado por sorpresa a los fabricantes de vehículos con motores de combustión interna tradicionales. La proliferación de los automóviles alimentados con baterías significa que, para una tecnología como la del hidrógeno, que busca cumplir muchos de los mismos objetivos ambientales, se convierte en una amenaza por la posibilidad de infligirle un golpe que la deje sólo en capacidad de atender el mercado nicho de combustible para camiones y autobuses.
BERLIN — It wasn’t so long ago that hydrogen was the fuel of the future, potentially capable of powering millions of cars while emitting nothing more than water from exhaust pipes.
No longer.
Rapid improvements in electric vehicle technology has caught even the makers of diesel and gasoline-powered cars by surprise.
For a technology like hydrogen, the proliferation of battery-powered cars — a technology that accomplishes many of the same objectives — threatens to deal it a blow that leaves it as only a niche fuel for trucks and buses.
“Hydrogen is running well behind electric vehicles in terms of market readiness,” said Greg Archer, who works on clean vehicles at Brussels-based Transport & Environment. “The costs have got to come down enormously and the range of vehicles has to increase massively.”
“If we believe in the Paris accord then you need to make it happen with renewable energy sources like hydrogen” — Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, secretary-general of Hydrogen Europe
Hydrogen enthusiasts argue that all that’s needed is a big push. Much of the necessary infrastructure is already available in existing gas grids. Should those be repurposed, cars and trucks could refill their tanks in a matter of minutes, compared to the up to eight hours needed to charge an electric car battery on a household current.
That, they argue, could be an environmental windfall, especially if hydrogen production shifts from breaking apart natural gas to using renewable energy to break apart water into hydrogen and oxygen through electrolysis.
“If we believe in the Paris accord then you need to make it happen with renewable energy sources like hydrogen,” said Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, the secretary-general of industry lobby group Hydrogen Europe, adding that no single option — be it batteries, biofuels or hydrogen — will do the job alone.
Losing ground
The trouble for the nascent hydrogen industry is that it’s progressing too slowly. Meanwhile, battery-powered cars are racing ahead, with increasing ranges, faster recharging times and falling costs.
“When we do the economic calculations and look at the hydrogen sector, we have trouble convincing ourselves that it has a horizon of 10 years,” Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of French energy giant Total, told Ouest France. “It’s still very expensive. The electric battery is one step ahead today.”
It’s not that no money is going into hydrogen — it’s just a lot less than is being spent on electric cars.
Germany wants to put in place 100 hydrogen stations by the end of next year, but that compares to a target of 15,000 electric charging posts, with Berlin making €300 million available to meet the target.
The French government plans to spend €100 million on pushing hydrogen fueling stations and vehicles in 2019 under a recently announced national program. The aim is to persuade companies to buy 5,000 vans and 200 trucks by 2023, a massive ramp-up from the roughly 250 hydrogen-powered vehicles currently deployed nationwide.
But that target pales in comparison to the 600,000 electric cars the French government estimates will be on the road by 2022.
European automakers are flirting with hydrogen. Germany’s Daimler has teamed up with Shell to set up hydrogen charging points, while French trainmaker Alstom has supplied trains powered by hydrogen to run on a commuter line on the German North Sea coast. France’s PSA Group also said it is working on a car model, while Mercedes-Benz and Audi have active programs.
But that doesn’t match up to their electric car plans; Volkswagen alone is dedicating €40 billion to battery purchases.
National enthusiasm for hydrogen also tends to wane further away from the rich and green cities of Northern Europe.
“The more you go south, the less interest there is in hydrogen,” said one automotive industry official who works on promoting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Some Central European countries are preparing for their own light hydrogen offensives, but these are focused on road transporters rather than mass market deployment.
Bulgaria wants to have 10 refuelling points nationwide by 2025. The Czech government estimates it needs 12 in place by the same year, and has made €6 million available to “lay the foundation” for the fuel with up to five stations, Transport Minister Dan Ťok recently said.
European electric car sales are expected to come to 200,000 this year. By 2040, there could be 40 million and 70 million worldwide, according to the International Energy Agency.
“Electric vehicles have really caught up,” said Archer. “With the chargers being put forward by German automakers you would be able to 80 percent charge your vehicle in 10 minutes.”
Holding out for hydrogen
Japan and South Korea have made large investments in hydrogen, but that’s unlikely to spill over into Europe.
Toyota’s Mirai car is the leader, a passenger vehicle that can run for 500 kilometers on a single tank of hydrogen. But of the 5,500 sold worldwide since it was unveiled in 2014, under 300 have been sent to Europe. Plans to expand production in Japan will get output to 30,000 per year by 2020, but that isn’t going to revolutionize the industry.
Less energy is wasted in battery charging than during the process of electrolysis needed to generate power in hydrogen fuel cells.
“It’s not with the Mirai that [the auto industry] will change the world,” said one executive from a global carmaker. “With 30,000 cars a year we will not support investment, production and distribution of hydrogen in Europe for example.”
There are also environmental concerns about hydrogen.
Less energy is wasted in battery charging than during the process of electrolysis needed to generate power in hydrogen fuel cells. While the hydrogen lobby insists its efficiency is improving, T&E argues that producing hydrogen loses 30 percent in power during the process of electrolysis.
That’s fine in countries such as Denmark, with a surplus of offshore wind power, but problematic if the electricity is from coal plants in Poland. “Then you start to ask what is the advantage of hydrogen over fast-charging electric vehicles,” said Archer.
Fuente: https://www.politico.eu
