La Agencia Internacional de Energía acaba de publicar la edición de este año del World Energy Outlook (WEO), que muestra que la crisis energética global desencadenada por la invasión rusa de Ucrania está provocando cambios profundos y duraderos que podrían ser usados para acelerar la transición hacia un sistema energético mundial más sustentable y seguro.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked a global energy crisis
The world is in the midst of its first global energy crisis – a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity. Pressures in markets predated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Russia’s actions have turned a rapid economic recovery from the pandemic – which strained all manner of global supply chains, including energy – into full-blown energy turmoil. Russia has been by far the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but its curtailments of natural gas supply to Europe and European sanctions on imports of oil and coal from Russia are severing one of the main arteries of global energy trade. All fuels are affected, but gas markets are the epicentre as Russia seeks leverage by exposing consumers to higher energy bills and supply shortages.
Prices for spot purchases of natural gas have reached levels never seen before, regularly exceeding the equivalent of USD 250 for a barrel of oil. Coal prices have also hit record levels, while oil rose well above USD 100 per barrel in mid-2022 before falling back. High gas and coal prices account for 90% of the upward pressure on electricity costs around the world. To offset shortfalls in Russian gas supply, Europe is set to import an extra 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2022 compared with the previous year. This has been eased by lower demand from China, where gas use was held back by lockdowns and subdued economic growth, but higher European LNG demand has diverted gas away from other importers in Asia.
The crisis has stoked inflationary pressures and created a looming risk of recession, as well as a huge USD 2 trillion windfall for fossil fuel producers above their 2021 net income. Higher energy prices are also increasing food insecurity in many developing economies, with the heaviest burden falling on poorer households where a larger share of income is spent on energy and food. Some 75 million people who recently gained access to electricity are likely to lose the ability to pay for it, meaning that for the first time since we started tracking it, the total number of people worldwide without electricity access has started to rise. And almost 100 million people may be pushed back into reliance on firewood for cooking instead of cleaner, healthier solutions.
Faced with energy shortfalls and high prices, governments have so far committed well over USD 500 billion, mainly in advanced economies, to shield consumers from the immediate impacts. They have rushed to try and secure alternative fuel supplies and ensure adequate gas storage. Other short-term actions have included increasing oil- and coal-fired electricity generation, extending the lifetimes of some nuclear power plants, and accelerating the flow of new renewables projects. Demand-side measures have generally received less attention, but greater efficiency is an essential part of the short- and longer-term response.
Is the crisis a boost, or a setback, for energy transitions?
With energy markets remaining extremely vulnerable, today’s energy shock is a reminder of the fragility and unsustainability of our current energy system. A key question for policy makers, and for this Outlook, is whether the crisis will be a setback for clean energy transitions or will catalyse faster action. Climate policies and net zero commitments were blamed in some quarters for contributing to the run-up in energy prices, but there is scant evidence for this. In the most affected regions, higher shares of renewables were correlated with lower electricity prices, and more efficient homes and electrified heat have provided an important buffer for some – but far from enough – consumers.
Times of crisis put the spotlight on governments, and on how they react. Alongside short-term measures, many governments are now taking longer-term steps: some seeking to increase or diversify oil and gas supply; many looking to accelerate structural change. The three scenarios explored in this World Energy Outlook (WEO) are differentiated primarily by the assumptions made on government policies. The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) shows the trajectory implied by today’s policy settings. The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments are met on time and in full, including their long-term net zero and energy access goals. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario maps out a way to achieve a 1.5 °C stabilisation in the rise in global average temperatures, alongside universal access to modern energy by 2030.
Policy responses are fast-tracking the emergence of a clean energy economy
New policies in major energy markets help propel annual clean energy investment to more than USD 2 trillion by 2030 in the STEPS, a rise of more than 50% from today. Clean energy becomes a huge opportunity for growth and jobs, and a major arena for international economic competition. By 2030, thanks in large part to the US Inflation Reduction Act, annual solar and wind capacity additions in the United States grow two-and-a-half-times over today’s levels, while electric car sales are seven times larger. New targets continue to spur the massive build-out of clean energy in China, meaning that its coal and oil consumption both peak before the end of this decade. Faster deployment of renewables and efficiency improvements in the European Union bring down EU natural gas and oil demand by 20% this decade, and coal demand by 50%, a push given additional urgency by the need to find new sources of economic and industrial advantage beyond Russian gas. Japan’s Green Transformation (GX) programme provides a major funding boost for technologies including nuclear, low-emissions hydrogen and ammonia, while Korea is also looking to increase the share of nuclear and renewables in its energy mix. India makes further progress towards its domestic renewable capacity target of 500 gigawatts (GW) in 2030, and renewables meet nearly two-thirds of the country’s rapidly rising demand for electricity.
Fuente: https://www.iea.org
