Con casi cuatro décadas de experiencia en la industria química, Gregg Goodnight, vicepresidente de Chemical Market Resources Development, filial de TZMI Consulting, recientemente fue entrevistado por Accenture para discutir el estado de la industria. He aquí un extracto de esa conversación.
With almost four decades of chemical industry experience, Gregg Goodnight, Vice President of Chemical Market Resources (CMR) Development, a subsidiary of TZMI Consulting, recently sat down with Accenture’s chemicals practice to discuss the state of the industry. Below is an excerpt from that conversation.
What factors are having the most significant impact on the chemical industry today?
The first is low oil prices. Beginning in mid-2014, crude oil prices reset to lower levels (going from $100-$110 per barrel down to the below $50 range), diminishing the gas-oil arbitrage. This has seriously disrupted the “new normal” for North American chemicals based on the shale gas boom, putting downward pressure on chemical prices and threatening to diminish the run of record profitability for US commodity chemicals.
Secondly, the impact of cheaper oil prices is moderated to some extent for the US by the current oversupply of natural gas liquids. The amount of ethane available from US shale gas production now routinely exceeds demand by two to three hundred thousand barrels a day, resulting in the rejection of ethane particularly in areas remote to the US Gulf Coast where ethane is consumed. In other words, there’s not enough demand for the available supply. New markets for ethane and ethylene derivatives need to be found, which represents a philosophical change for the US market where capacity has always been built for domestic demand.
The third is the overall global macroeconomic backdrop. In short, the US is holding its own. However, it is hard to find positive information on the rest of the world. Europe is growing but off of a very small base, and high debt persists. The BRIC countries are really hurting, with Russia, Brazil and China all doing much worse than in the last five years where they accounted for the majority of global growth. Only India is showing current strength.
You’ve mentioned something called “Chem-enomics 101.” Describe this for us.
No discussion of the chemical industry in today’s market is complete without talking about China. So, Chem-enomics is a conceptual model I use to illustrate (admittedly in a grossly oversimplified way) the Western vs. Chinese view of the industry.
In the Western view, commodity chemical demand is linked to the global market. The health of a business is judged by financial metrics including capital efficiency, return on investment, return on assets, return on capital, payback periods, and the like. Economies are driven by consumer spending and domestic demand.
In the Chinese view, commodity chemical demand is tied to net imports in the domestic market and national self-sufficiency—something that is immaterial in the Western view. The health of the company is judged primarily by cash flow, and the economy is driven by investment growth and export potential. It is worth noting that the Chinese are somewhat trying to revamp their economy more towards consumer spending and less by investment-based activity—a key driver of recent growth, but perhaps less sustainable in the long-term.
What is your near term outlook for the chemical industry?
In the near term, the chemical industry will continue to be impacted by low oil prices and the current glut of global crude oil—that we and most others believe will persist until the end of 2016. The oil glut will keep prices down for commodity chemicals and thus trim the US cost advantage that has been based on capturing the oil/gas arbitrage.
Expenditures for midstream projects and other capital intensive projects are going to come in as well. The decisions to move ahead with these projects were made under global economic conditions that included expensive oil and cheap gas. Since this has changed, projects will be reevaluated. Coal-to-olefin (CTO) expenditures, especially in China, will be trimmed. In addition, fewer US cracker projects will be approved in the next year, although the ones in construction will likely move forward.
Lastly, we think all ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shipment projects will be reevaluated with the new oil and gas split, as they make less sense for European and Asian customers in the current pricing environment. For at least the next year, low margins will also persist for titanium dioxide (TiO2) and chlor-alkali.
What are your longer term expectations for the chemical industry?
Longer term, we think the market can’t stay where it is because it is in a state of dis-equilibrium. The economic stress endured by traditional oil exporters in terms of current account balances and national budget requirements will catch up with them, eventually resulting in production to be curtailed and oil prices to rise.
There’s likely going to be a reasonably good balance between global supply and demand for ethylene derivatives. The expected project delays and cancellations between 2015 and 2017 should pay dividends for the chemical industry down the line. Furthermore, the recent number of spinoffs will result in new industry structures and tighter control of cash resources, which will positively impact the industry as we emerge from the downturn.
Fuente: https://www.accenture.com
